Zilzila bashorati

Zilzila bashorati deganda berilgan muddat ichida boʻlajak zilzila^[1] va xususan, berilgan mintaqadagi kelasi kuchli zilzilaning sodir boʻlish vaqti, joyi va magnitudasini oldindan aytib berish tushuniladi.^[2] Bunda zilzilani taxmin etish amaliyoti tushunilmasligi kerak, chunki taxminlash berilgan mintaqada kelajak bir necha yil ichida zilzila sodir boʻlishi ehtimolligini aniqlash boʻlib, aniq natija berishni oʻz oldiga vazifa qilib qoʻymaydi.^[3] Zilziladan ogohlantirish tizimi ham zilzila bashorati emas, chunki bunday tizim zotan sodir boʻlgan zilzilani qayd etib, u qoʻshni mintaqalarga yetib borgunicha ularni bir necha soniya oldindan ogohlantirish uchun ishlatiladi.

Foydali boʻlishi uchun zilzila bashorati tayyorgarlik koʻrish va faoliyat toʻxtatilishiga ketadigan sarf-xarajatlar bekor boʻlmasligini kafolatlaydigan darajada aniq boʻlishi lozim. Aks holda soxta bashoratlar nafaqat iqtisodiy zarar keltiradi,^[4] balki shunday bashoratga ishonchni kamaytirib, samarasiga jiddiy putur yetkazadi.^[5]

1970-yillarda olimlar orasida zilzilalarni bashorat etish metodi alal-oqibat ishlab chiqilishi mumkin, degan nekbinlik kuchaygan edi, biroq 1990-yillarga kelib davom etayotgan muvaffaqiyatsizlik koʻp olimlarni zilzilani bashorat qilishning umuman iloji bormi, degan savolga olib keldi.^[6] Bugunda ayrim olimlar yetarli resurslar bilan zilzilalarni bashorat qilish mumkin, deyishsa, boshqa olimlar bunday bashoratlarni amalga oshirishning hech qanday iloji yoʻq, degan fikrda.^[7]

Harakatlar

Zilzilalarni bashorat qilishning samarali metodi haligacha mavjud emas, biroq bunday metodlar ishlab chiqish tomon harakatlar qilinmoqda. Bu urinishlar quyidagilarga asoslangan:

Hayvonlar atvori

Zilziladan oldin hayvonlarning oʻzini tutishida oʻzgarishlar kuzatiladi, degan iddaolar qilingan. Biroq bu iddao oʻzini toʻliq oqlamagan. Masalan, 1992-yili Kaliforniyadagi 7,3 magnitudali Landers zilzilasi epitsentridan 100 km uzoqda chumolilar ustidan oʻtkazilayotgan tajriba paytida chumolilarning zilzilani na oldindan, na keyin sezgani kuzatildi.^[8] Kemiruvchilar bilan oʻtkazilgan boshqa tajriba esa gʻayrioddiy hatti-harakatni qayd etdi, biroq kemiruvchilarning bunday atvori zilzila emas, balki boshqa faktorlar tufayli boʻlgani aniqlandi.^[9]

Biroq 2011-yilgi 5,8 magnitudali Virginia zilzilasidan 5-10 soniya oldin Vashington hayvonot bogʻidagi baʼzi hayvonlar bezovtalangani kuzatilgan; lekin bu zilzilani oldindan sezish belgisi boʻlmay, odamlar sezmagan kuchsiz birlamchi p-toʻlqinini sezgani tufaylidir, bu birlamchi toʻlqin ketidan bir necha soniya oʻtib kuchli ikkilamchi s-toʻlqin yetib keldi.^[10]

V_p/V_s farqi

Seysmologiyadagi yana bir metod V_p (p-toʻlqin tezligi) va V_s (s-toʻlqin tezligi) nisbati oʻzgarishini qayd etishga asoslanadi. Bu nisbat tosh qobiq siqilayotgan paytda oʻzgaradi, deb taxmin etilgandi. Bu metodga tayanib faqat bitta zilzila (1973-yilgi 2,6 magnitudali New York zilzilasi) muvaffaqiyatli bashorat qilingan.^[11] Bu metod bilan boshqa zilzilalarni oldindan aytishga urinishlar samarasiz chiqdi.^[12]

Radon emissiyasi

Toshlarning aksariyati kichik miqdorda normal atmosfera gazlaridan izotopik farqlanuvchi gazlarni oʻzida saqlaydi. Katta zilzila oldidan toshlar yorilib, gazlar emissiyasi kuzatilgan. Bu gazlardan biri radon boʻlib, u toshlardagi asorat uran radioaktiv parchalanishi natijasida kelib chiqadi.^[13]

Radon emissiyasini kuzatish nisbatan qulay, chunki u radioaktivligi va yetarli davom etuvchi yarim yemirilish davri (3,8 sutka) bilan xarakterlanadi. Biroq radon emissiyasi metodining jiddiy kamchiligi shundaki, u na aniq joy (xatoligi ming kilometrgacha), na aniq vaqt (xatoligi bir necha oygacha) va na aniq magnitudani koʻrsatadi.^[14]

Manbalar

↑ Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14-mart 1997-yil), „Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted“ (PDF), Science, 275: 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, 2019-05-12da asl nusxadan (PDF) arxivlandi, qaraldi: 2013-05-27{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()
↑ Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997), „Are earthquakes predictable?“ (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x, 2016-03-03da asl nusxadan (PDF) arxivlandi, qaraldi: 2013-05-27{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date and year ()
↑ International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (2-oktabr 2009-yil), Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization — Executive Summary (PDF), 2013-03-09da asl nusxadan (PDF) arxivlandi, qaraldi: 2013-05-27{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()
↑ Thomas, Lee M. (1983), „Economic impacts of earthquake prediction“ (PDF), Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories, Geneva, 12–15-oktabr 1982-yil: UNDPRO, 179–185-bet, 2013-04-26da asl nusxadan (PDF) arxivlandi, qaraldi: 2013-05-27{{citation}}: CS1 maint: location ()
↑ Atwood, L. Erwin; Major, Ann Marie (November 1998), „Exploring the "Cry Wolf" Hypothesis“, International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 16 (3): 279–302, 2016-03-21da asl nusxadan arxivlandi, qaraldi: 2013-05-27
↑ Console, R. (30-avgust 2001-yil), „Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses“, Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()
↑ „Nature Debates“. Nature (25-fevral 1999).
↑ Lighton, John R.B.; Duncan, Frances D. (15-avgust 2005-yil), „Shaken, not stirred: a serendipitous study of ants and earthquakes“ (PDF), Journal of Experimental Biology, 208: 3103–3107, doi:10.1242/jeb.01735{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()
↑ Lindberg, Robert G.; Skiles, Durward; Hayden, Page (1981), „Can animals predict earthqaukes? A search for correlations between changes in activity patterns of two fossorial rodents and subsequent seismic events“ (PDF), U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 81-385
↑ Miller, Sunlen; Patrick, Maggy; Capatides, Christina (24-avgust 2011-yil), Sixth Sense? Zoo Animals Sensed Quake Early, ABC News{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()
↑ Aggarwal, Yash P.; Sykes, Lynn R.; Simpson, David W.; Richards, Paul G. (10-fevral 1975-yil), „Spatial and Temporal Variations in t_s/t_p and in P Wave Residuals at Blue Mountain Lake, New York: Application to Earthquake Prediction“, Journal of Geophysical Research, 80 (5): 718–732, Bibcode:1975JGR....80..718A, doi:10.1029/JB080i005p00718{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()
↑ Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), „Earthquake prediction: a critical review.“, Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x
↑ Immè, Giuseppina; Morelli, Daniela (2012), „Radon as Earthquake Precursor“ (PDF), in D'Amico (muh.), Earthquake Research and Analysis
↑ International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30-may 2011-yil), „Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization“, Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()

Havolalar

Earthquake Prediction Topics (Wayback Machine saytida 2013-05-09 sanasida arxivlangan), AQSh Geologik xizmati

Ushbu maqola chaladir. Siz uni boyitib, Vikipediyaga yordam berishingiz mumkin.
Bu andozani aniqrogʻiga almashtirish kerak.

[1] Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14-mart 1997-yil), „Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted“ (PDF), Science, 275: 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, 2019-05-12da asl nusxadan (PDF) arxivlandi, qaraldi: 2013-05-27{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()

[2] Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997), „Are earthquakes predictable?“ (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x, 2016-03-03da asl nusxadan (PDF) arxivlandi, qaraldi: 2013-05-27{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date and year ()

[3] International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (2-oktabr 2009-yil), Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization — Executive Summary (PDF), 2013-03-09da asl nusxadan (PDF) arxivlandi, qaraldi: 2013-05-27{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()

[4] Thomas, Lee M. (1983), „Economic impacts of earthquake prediction“ (PDF), Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories, Geneva, 12–15-oktabr 1982-yil: UNDPRO, 179–185-bet, 2013-04-26da asl nusxadan (PDF) arxivlandi, qaraldi: 2013-05-27{{citation}}: CS1 maint: location ()

[Atwood_1998-5] Atwood, L. Erwin; Major, Ann Marie (November 1998), „Exploring the "Cry Wolf" Hypothesis“, International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 16 (3): 279–302, 2016-03-21da asl nusxadan arxivlandi, qaraldi: 2013-05-27

[6] Console, R. (30-avgust 2001-yil), „Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses“, Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()

[7] „Nature Debates“. Nature (25-fevral 1999).

[8] Lighton, John R.B.; Duncan, Frances D. (15-avgust 2005-yil), „Shaken, not stirred: a serendipitous study of ants and earthquakes“ (PDF), Journal of Experimental Biology, 208: 3103–3107, doi:10.1242/jeb.01735{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()

[9] Lindberg, Robert G.; Skiles, Durward; Hayden, Page (1981), „Can animals predict earthqaukes? A search for correlations between changes in activity patterns of two fossorial rodents and subsequent seismic events“ (PDF), U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 81-385

[10] Miller, Sunlen; Patrick, Maggy; Capatides, Christina (24-avgust 2011-yil), Sixth Sense? Zoo Animals Sensed Quake Early, ABC News{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()

[11] Aggarwal, Yash P.; Sykes, Lynn R.; Simpson, David W.; Richards, Paul G. (10-fevral 1975-yil), „Spatial and Temporal Variations in t_s/t_p and in P Wave Residuals at Blue Mountain Lake, New York: Application to Earthquake Prediction“, Journal of Geophysical Research, 80 (5): 718–732, Bibcode:1975JGR....80..718A, doi:10.1029/JB080i005p00718{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()

[12] Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), „Earthquake prediction: a critical review.“, Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x

[13] Immè, Giuseppina; Morelli, Daniela (2012), „Radon as Earthquake Precursor“ (PDF), in D'Amico (muh.), Earthquake Research and Analysis

[14] International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30-may 2011-yil), „Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization“, Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date format ()

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